Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.311897 1.390571 1.472620 1.564780 1.665665 1.773023 1.896276
2026-01-18 1.191223 1.301979 1.422877 1.565449 1.730026 1.915320 2.141545
2026-01-25 1.129699 1.261577 1.410273 1.591964 1.810221 2.066907 2.396124
2026-02-01 1.052658 1.193758 1.356617 1.560882 1.813711 2.121199 2.531232
2026-02-08 0.983118 1.128454 1.299340 1.518218 1.795836 2.143024 2.621582
2026-02-15 0.937994 1.088755 1.269097 1.504697 1.810581 2.203621 2.763442
2026-02-22 0.906041 1.062688 1.253124 1.506626 1.843231 2.287359 2.940987
2026-03-01 0.866220 1.024474 1.219376 1.482804 1.839098 2.319688 3.046878
2026-03-08 0.822749 0.979545 1.174668 1.441659 1.808246 2.311807 3.091686
2026-03-15 0.795645 0.954158 1.153673 1.430401 1.816773 2.358507 3.220101
2026-03-22 0.784574 0.948716 1.158037 1.452972 1.872937 2.476298 3.467263
2026-03-29 0.765545 0.931975 1.146493 1.452701 1.895913 2.545908 3.643367
2026-04-05 0.752630 0.923492 1.146497 1.469736 1.946832 2.664144 3.917180
2026-04-12 0.734328 0.907156 1.135178 1.470136 1.973106 2.746305 4.139442
2026-04-19 0.725624 0.903250 1.140480 1.494303 2.036224 2.891170 4.489426
2026-04-26 0.699903 0.875191 1.111012 1.465969 2.016206 2.898220 4.585558
2026-05-03 0.672250 0.843613 1.075484 1.427037 1.977248 2.870591 4.611987
2026-05-10 0.654729 0.825487 1.058300 1.414689 1.979653 2.912899 4.779232
2026-05-17 0.642637 0.814490 1.050789 1.416451 2.004583 2.995489 5.037083
2026-05-24 0.624023 0.793778 1.028578 1.394685 1.989597 3.006145 5.146236
2026-05-31 0.601553 0.767056 0.996880 1.357058 1.946395 2.963097 5.135442
2026-06-07 0.588207 0.752924 0.983097 1.346755 1.948402 3.002469 5.309659
2026-06-14 0.584431 0.752277 0.988973 1.367408 2.003812 3.144744 5.735376